Data-Driven Outreach: Transforming FE student Support with Market Segmentation

By Dr Anne Kildunne, Evaluation Co-Ordinator, Humber Outreach Programme & Sarah Dirranne, Director, Research and Strategy, Cosmos Ltd.
This paper is part of our NEON Summer Symposium 2024 series. 

Abstract

At a time of increasing HE Access inequality in England, both Uniconnect and HE Access teams are operating in a tighter financial environment with increasing pressures to justify and evidence their interventions and impact. This means that there is an urgent need to target the choice of careers information and guidance (CIAG) interventions to particular groups, especially those studying in FE who are significantly under-represented at HE and may face multiple disadvantages. Using data taken from the national CFE survey on students’ attitudes to GE and innovative segmentation approach, we outline how we have used a new tool developed by Cosmos Ltd to understand students’ CIAG attitudes and needs.

We report on how we used the tool 1) to shape our decision-making and focus our resources and 2) how we used students’ preferences to shape our CIAG offer to them. We offer interim results informed by our Theory of Change (TOC). Our work suggests that this is an effective operational tool for FE leaders in particular to understand, benchmark and address their learners’ needs using a data-driven strategy.

Introduction: Utilising data to strategically target outreach support

Nationally and compared to sixth forms and secondary schools, FE students are amongst the least likely to progress to level 4 or HE and training (56.3% vs 77.6%; Gov. UK); but the cohort that may benefit most from participating in intensive outreach, with those in receipt being more than 17 percentage points more likely to enter HE than their peers receiving little or none (HEAT, 2023). Reduced budgets however mean that there is an increased need to improve the efficiency of targeting and delivery of outreach whilst retaining a key priority of delivery of outreach to disadvantaged students. (OFS, 2024). Anecdotally we know that many FE students are from particularly disadvantaged backgrounds and may have lacked parental support to aim for HE or have benefited from CIAG. This means this cohort has a particular need for good quality careers information, advice and guidance together with appropriate outreach activities to reduce the UK HE access gap.

Segmentation is a recognised marketing technique which splits customers into groups with similar attitudes, demographics or needs (Dibbs, 1998). Grouping customers in this way means that marketing messages can be more tightly targeted, making communications more effective and cost-efficient (Goyat, 2011). Whilst increasingly used in the education sector particularly as UK universities seek to maximise their recruitment (Helmsley-Brown and Oplatka, 2006), there is little guidance on their effective implementation and there do not appear to be any published examples of segmentation being used in the widening participation sector or with FE students. Due to significant budget cuts however, use of a tool that would allow HOP and Uniconnect to more efficiently target some students however is strategically useful and offers potentially good value for money.

This paper discusses how the Humber Outreach Project (HOP) utilised an innovative tool to identify and target FE students for careers outreach and improve their attitudes to HE application. We explain the different ways in which we used the tool and how we shaped our outreach accordingly.

Aims and evaluation approach

HOP commissioned Cosmos in 2021 to undertake a segmentation analysis of post-16 students utilising student responses to CFE survey data (CFE, 2023). The CFE annual learner survey ran from 2017-2021 and by 2020-21 covered over 40,000 students. Drawing on a detailed analysis of these responses, Cosmos constructed a segmentation analysis, identifying four national student segments, each characterised by a unique set of traits and support needs in relation to making an informed choice about future pathways. To identify which students fit into each segment, an online diagnostic tool was also developed to assign students to a segment in real-time, facilitating a highly personalised student-centric approach.

The four segments consist of HE confident; HE hopeful, HE maybe and HE sceptic. Whilst most segments recognise the benefits of HE, HE sceptics are the least likely to aspire to HE whilst HE confident the most likely. Whilst all have common needs, including career guidance, reassurance and knowledge on all post FE options, these differ in their intensity and character. In the HOP area, HE maybes were the largest segment, a group open to HE but needing advice on the options available and help choosing the most suitable path for themselves, taking into account their current circumstances, career aspirations and personal strengths. This group was also most likely to be interested in studying Health/Social Care. Drawing on collaborative discussions with FE colleagues, HOP therefore decided to target and work collaboratively with colleges to supply CIAG to this group.

Health and Social Care is a key employment sector facing recruitment shortfalls and a skills shortage in both the public NHS sector and the largely privatised care sector (Kings Fund, 2024). Demographic changes including an aging population mean increasing demand, with numerous vacancies predicted over the next decade (House of Commons, 2024). Health and Social Care particularly within the NHS is also dominated by females from polar quintiles 1 and 2, but particularly within the NHS offers part-time working opportunities together with a transparent pay structure. Employees in this sector also need to take responsibility for both their own and their patients’ health and safety, meaning that these students, particularly compared to other students of their age, need a mature, confident and responsible a to approach in order to protect both their own and their patients’ health and safety. Sector recruitment across England has also fallen significantly since 2022, meaning there are many vacancies at different levels. Targeting resources at this cohort therefore might contribute to improvements in both access and continuation rates at a number of levels including HE and degree apprenticeships, whilst work to improve student confidence may support these students in their future working lives, regardless of whether they attend HE or not.

Therefore based on this data, HOP developed a flexible Theory of Change with two key aims:

1. to utilise the tool to identify those students who might be most open to HE and to whom we might most effectively target our outreach
2. to develop a sustained and progressive offer, to address those issues of most concern to those students in the most efficient way. Experience and analysis suggests that the combination of a number of interventions, together with the experience of a campus visit is most impactful to students (HEAT, 2023)

Our evaluation plan therefore utilised the diagnostic tool as a pre and post survey, combined with student interviews to understand their experience of the survey and intervention, together with a long-term plan to track student HE applications onto a Health and Social Care course in order to check for external validity of the tool i.e do short-term intentions track into reality.

In the next section we contrast three examples of the use of this tool in different institutions.

Contrasting Case studies

In the first case, the results of the pre-survey were administered to a group of yr 12 Level 3 Health and Social Care Students, Whilst these students academically had the ability and qualifications to apply to HE, some 85% were not HE confident. A bespoke intervention was developed to address these needs focused on academic confidence, the practical usefulness of existing knowledge on future employment options, and finance information. The campus visit included the opportunity to meet student learners who had attended their college and a master-class in the Health Sciences building at the University of Hull.

The post-survey showed an increase from 15% to 64% in those students classed as HE confident, with corresponding falls in the other sections. Many of the “Hopeful” students moved to “Confident” along with approx. 50% of the “Maybes”. See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: Pre and post intervention survey (matched =32)

In the second case, the student profile was rather different, with 25 pre and post surveys matched and the HE confident cohort increasing from 32% to 63%. This cohort had particular concerns over academic knowledge with many students potential first generation HE. Interestingly, in this group, HE sceptics, those least likely to access HE, increased from 12% to 18.5% meaning that some students had decided that they were less likely, following the intervention, to consider HE. See figure 2 below.

Figure 2: Pre and post intervention survey (matched =25)

Unfortunately it was not possible to follow up reasons for this decision with these students, but their identification meant that they were a priority for this college for 1:1 CIAG. However the marked decrease from 28% to 11% of HE Maybes suggests that these students had at least made a conscious decision to move away from HE. All learners were also keen to know what transferable skills and other career options might be available to them when studying Health Sciences at HE.

In the third case, an FE college utilised the tool by administering a survey to an entire year 12 to understand the cohorts’ needs. College staff then used the findings from the survey to tailor emailed university resources and to invite targeted students to support sessions. Results were also shared with teaching teams to inform their conversations with learners during 1:1s, particularly as an initial starting discussion point. The resource was provided at no cost by HOP and staff found the resource timely and easy to use.

Operationally, it seems that administering the survey to a class group is most effective, so that outreach delivery can be easily timetabled and the number of surveys is easier to handle by subject teachers.

Conclusion

We must recognise that HE is not a desired outcome for all students and that alternative career pathways are valid, satisfactory and desirable. Being unclear about a career pathway however is a significant cause of student stress and undermines students’ confidence and resilience in moving forward with a career pathway. We need to recognise therefore that an intervention that helps students to decide that something is not for them, is also useful.

It’s also important to recognise that each institution has a unique profile of students with varying degrees of confidence, ability and aspirations, meaning that a “one-size fits all” outreach offer is not always useful. A significant advantage of this tool is the way that it allows us to shape and tailor our offer to the particular group. For example, whilst both groups in case studies 1 and 2 had concerns over student finance, it was noticeable that for the first group, being able to access part-time work within Care was seen as an advantage, giving the opportunity perhaps to put into practice academic learning whilst earning, and reducing stress.

Using this form of quick short-term segmentation, has allowed us to personalise our offer to students so its most relevant to them whilst also providing our local FE colleges with an easy-to-use tool to understand their student populations’ needs. Importantly, this tool can reflect local needs’ preferences, so that other Uniconnects in different parts of the country might prioritise different local employment opportunities more appropriate to their area. We will continue to engage with our colleges to understand local employment opportunities and demand, offering reflexive opportunities for other targeted interventions. Further work will also aim to externally validate the short-term results of this polling with tracking into local HE providers, to improve our Theory of Change.

Operationally, both HOP outreach co-ordinators and college staff found the highly visual survey tool easy to use, both to generate and analyse results, providing a quick snapshot of student’ needs. Students seemed to appreciate that they could complete the survey on their mobiles, then personalize and shape their future offer, whilst then recognizing the peer support and shared experience of receiving outreach support in a group.

Use of this data-based tool, combined with practitioner local knowledge and a robust evaluation plan allows us to be confident that we have a clear data-based rationale for our outreach offer. At a time of reduced budgets and increased emphasis on “what works in outreach” (OFS, 2021) this collaboration has useful potential, providing a justification for our work in line with best practice. We aim to build upon this work by further collaboration with our colleges to understand their needs and potentially develop other bespoke subject offers. Validation of our students self-reported HE intentions to understand if these actually translated into HE applications is also planned so that we can better understand these learners and refine the tool.

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